{"schema":"sb.record.v1","schemaAliases":["sb.truth.v1"],"subject":"hormuz","title":"The Hormuz record","tier":"full","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hormuz","bound":true,"basis":"full-tier-hand-carved","statement":"Full-tier record: the subject was chosen by hand and its first-party issuers hand-verified — not derived from the event registry. Every layer below is this subject's own; nothing is borrowed.","candidatesConsidered":["hormuz"]},"publishState":"published","asOf":"2026-10-29","currency":{"state":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-10-29","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-29","newestObservationAt":"2026-10-29","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":0,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"the fastest cadence declared by a readable registered primary source (1 day)","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"Sources run through 2026-10-29; the market sensor runs through 2026-10-06, 23 days behind.","layers":{"primarySources":{"key":"primarySources","label":"issuing-authority documents","asOf":"2026-10-28","asOfBasis":"the newest date a read primary document speaks for (NAVAREA IX navigational warnings)","computedAt":"2026-10-29","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":1,"state":"current","reason":""},"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-10-29","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-29T21:52:40.283342+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-06","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-10-29","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":23,"note":"3 of 5 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-10-06, 23 days before this record's 2026-10-29 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day; its newest was seen 2026-10-29"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-29","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-29T19:50:59.284987Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"curatedReporting":{"key":"curatedReporting","label":"curated reporting rows","asOf":"2026-10-29","asOfBasis":"the newest dated reporting row the tracked-entity snapshot carries","computedAt":"2026-10-29T21:52:40.283342+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"consensusLedger":{"key":"consensusLedger","label":"reporting-consensus ledger","asOf":"2026-10-29","asOfBasis":"the last day of the corpus the ledger was computed over, as its own corpus statement gives it (web/signal-bureau/lib/claims_hormuz.json)","computedAt":"2026-10-29T18:50:42+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"marketSensor","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-10-29T21:52:40.283342+00:00","tracked":true,"trackedNote":null,"access":"Free — a public exhibit record: no key, no charge. The same object renders at https://sigb.ai/exhibit/hormuz/, serves at GET /api/record/hormuz (earlier address /api/truth/hormuz, still answers), and answers the get_topic_record MCP tool.","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/exhibit/hormuz/ so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — first-party operational issuers for the strait itself, verified by direct fetch","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-29","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":3,"sourcesFailing":0,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-10-29","failingSince":null},"discipline":"Honest label: rows carry their verification date, not a live refresh, and they do not silently update. A stamp moves only on a confirmed verification, and each row says which date it speaks for. The live automation status of this layer is stated on the layer itself (the automation field), derived from the fetch-health records below, never asserted ahead of them.","sourceOfRecord":"qa/c3_jobs/hormuz-operational-sources/RESULTS.md (#387)","tripwirePair":{"sources":["ukmto-jmic","navarea-ix"],"note":"UKMTO/JMIC advisory notes plus NAVAREA IX navigational warnings are the layer-0 tripwire pair: both first-party, both refreshed within 1-3 days of verification, both carrying incident-level Strait state."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a content change on the tripwire pair (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes / NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing.","lastAttempt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:26"},"sources":[{"id":"ukmto-jmic","name":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes","issuer":"UK Maritime Trade Operations (Royal Navy) / coalition Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)","tier":"primary","cadence":"~every 2–3 days","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-29","observed":"Update 106 (18 october)","observedAsOf":"2026-10-18","links":[{"label":"newest advisory (PDF)","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-19T09:47:36+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"6daa5c2737e34f4ebbf24239a9172826","lastModified":"Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:46:43 GMT","signature":"sha256:74e01bb311e7fc7481aa1a9ef4f04b6fff2f33ebc175c53ea5b3362a22562a1f","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"linkNote":"Not an index page. The issuer's advisory shelf assembles its list in the reader's browser and serves 'No products to display' to a fetcher (the crawl's own 2026-09-04 log reached the shelf and saw only footer PDFs), while each advisory is served directly under /-/media/ukmto/products/ as update-<n>-jmic-advisory-note-<dd>-<month>.pdf. This link is the newest advisory on record and it is a CURSOR, not a pin: the daily sequence probe (discovery.sequence, producer state in probeLog) walks the number forward every run and moves the link to whatever the issuer has published. Authored 2026-09-05 from search-indexed evidence, not from a fetch by the authoring session (the session VM has no egress); the daily run is the referee. History, never scrubbed: 2026-09-03 repointed the row to two shelf pages the crawl had fetched with 200, and both answered 404 on every fetch after; before that, update-073's own PDF (19 July), which re-fetching daily proved still existed and could never discover update 074.","discovery":{"root":"https://www.ukmto.org/","productPattern":"(?:update|advisor)[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*\\.pdf","note":"UKMTO publishes each JMIC advisory as a numbered PDF, so the index we want is whichever page links the most of them. Discovery runs only when the recorded links fail. Widened 2026-08-28 per the scout's productPattern-change verdict (#506/#536): the 2026-08-28 hunt saw 7 issuer PDFs, none matching the old update-<n>- shape, so the pattern now also accepts advisory-style names while still refusing the observed flyer/chart/BMP files. Safe to widen: discovery only NOMINATES; the row's own extractor must pull a real advisory reading before anything repoints (a wrong guess leaves the row unreadable, never wrongly read). If discovery finds the shelf and the reader still extracts nothing, the next fix class is the extractor's own filename pattern, with the found page as evidence. Sequence probe added 2026-09-05 (#506): the 2026-09-04 crawl's verdict named a productPattern fix, but the seven documents it saw are the shelf's footer charts/booklet/flyer, and the advisory list itself is rendered client-side, so no pattern can match a link the server never sends. The artifacts are served at a predictable media path, so discovery.sequence now walks the advisory number forward directly (every run, not only on failure); this crawl config stays as the fallback when the row's links fail.","sequence":{"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","start":82,"startDate":"2026-08-09","maxProbes":60,"maxGap":2,"note":"The newest advisory known when this was authored (2026-09-05): update-082, dated 09 August, at the path the template renders (search-indexed, not fetched by the authoring session). The walk probes {n}+1.. for each date from the cursor's date forward, accepts only a PDF body, refuses everything if a canary number (n+1000) resolves, and resumes from probeLog.probedThrough. maxGap 2 tolerates two numbers in the series belonging to other JMIC products; maxProbes 60 lets the first catch-up cover the weeks the row spent dead in about two runs. 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The issuer has likely renamed its files, so the fix is a productPattern change on the row's discovery config, not a URL swap and not a wider crawl.","at":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastReadRef":"Update 106","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"probeLog":{"found":false,"probes":13,"canary":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-1106-jmic-advisory-note-29-october.pdf","probeBudget":60,"maxGap":2,"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","highest":106,"highestDate":"2026-10-18","cursorUrl":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf","advancedCount":0,"advanced":[],"candidates":[107,108,109],"exhausted":false,"sample":["https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-107-jmic-advisory-note-26-october.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-108-jmic-advisory-note-26-october.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-109-jmic-advisory-note-26-october.pdf"],"probedFrom":"2026-10-26","today":"2026-10-29","probedThrough":"2026-10-26","note":"No newer artifact than 106 (2026-10-18) answers this template for any date through 2026-10-29 (13 probe(s), sample in `sample`). If the issuer has published since, its naming changed, so the fix is the template, not a wider walk.","at":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00"},"observedRef":"Update 106","observedDate":"18 october","observedReadAt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":11,"observedArtifact":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf","readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"navarea-ix","name":"NAVAREA IX navigational warnings","issuer":"National Hydrographic Office, Pakistan Navy (the interior Strait’s WWNWS issuer)","tier":"primary","cadence":"daily","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-29","observed":"416/26 (28 Oct 2026) — POSSIBLE PIRATE ACTION GROUP REPORTED NAVAREA IX 281500 UTC OCT 2026","observedAsOf":"2026-10-28","links":[{"label":"issuer index","url":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/navarea-ix-warnings/"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:b21b5980d200be9899410d74b9b889dbaca6111266bac6ca9cdb5cf9a08e36ca","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"observedRef":"416/26","observedDate":"28 Oct 2026","observedReadAt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","discovery":{"root":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/","productPattern":"navarea[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*","textPattern":"\\b(\\d{1,4})\\s*/\\s*\\d{2}\\b","note":"NAVAREA IX warnings are printed as rows, not files, so discovery falls back to counting warning references in the page text. The row's own reader is still the referee."},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastReadRef":"416/26","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":1,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"corroboration","name":"Corroboration & context","issuer":"US MARAD MSCI · NGA MSI · EIA · Lloyd’s JWC","tier":"primary","cadence":"periodic / event-driven","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-29","observed":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024 (081538Z MAY 2024) — PERSIAN GULF. QATAR. DNC 10. SURVEY OPERATIONS 08 MAY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE BY M/V HORIZON GEOBAY IN AREA BOUND BY 26-09.23N 051-48.00E, 26-06.54N 052-02.87E, 25-31.26N 051-56.93E, 25-33.85N 051-41.16E. WIDE BERTH REQUESTED.","observedAsOf":"2024-05-08","links":[{"label":"NGA MSI broadcast warnings (JSON API)","url":"https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/broadcast-warn?status=active&output=json"}],"note":"Full source records (methods, samples, and the dead-ends we ruled out) publish as each fetcher ships.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastChange":null,"consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:ef93699cf872ec61f29f74575b522e6f477ea9d93d029794cf16a3f30fc4640f","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-11T09:47:09+00:00"},"scopeNote":"NGA issues NAVAREA IV, XII and HYDRO only; this covers the APPROACHES to the Strait, never its interior, which is NAVAREA IX (read separately above). Corroboration, not a primary tripwire.","observedRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","observedDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","observedReadAt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastReadRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":904,"observedContentAgeNote":"Read successfully on 2026-10-29, but the advisory it names is dated 081538Z MAY 2024, 904 days old. The read is current; the operational picture it describes is not necessarily. Stated so age cannot be mistaken for freshness.","readState":"read","readStateNote":null}]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources: outside coverage in our tracked set, not first-party operational data; verify at the source. Filtered for subject membership by the platform's one gate (cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership); only the rows it cleared are served.","status":"observed","note":"Subject-membership filtered: 7 attributable rows sampled for \"hormuz\", 2 served, 5 withheld (5 judged off-subject, 0 the gate could not judge). The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":7,"served":2,"withheldNotEventRelevant":5,"withheldOffSubject":5,"withheldUnmeasured":0,"membershipGate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership","items":[{"title":"Middle East conflict: Iran says discussing plan with mediators to end war, reopen Hormuz; UAE’s Gargash urges restraint","url":"https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/middle-east-war-iran-says-qatar-offered-no-new-proposal-uaes-gargash-urges-restraint-1.500726349","date":"2026-10-28","source":"gulfnews","eventTerms":["hormuz"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Hormuz closure a fatal blow for Dubai and Abu Dhabi transhipment volumes","url":"https://theloadstar.com/hormuz-closure-a-fatal-blow-for-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-transhipment-volumes/","date":"2026-09-30","source":"The Loadstar","eventTerms":["hormuz"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":901,"outlets":186,"activeDays":43,"firstSeen":"2026-09-14","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-29","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-10-29","activeDays":43,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":4691,"outlets":303,"activeDays":83,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-28","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"],"asserts":null,"assertsUnit":null,"assertionCoverage":0.096,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":3780,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":17,"ceasefire-deal":4,"sanction-trade":4}},{"name":"oil","together":3237,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"middle east","together":2003,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":1834,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"red sea","together":1107,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"israel","together":1551,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"yemen","together":1496,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":1098,"sharedDomains":["energy"]}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","middle east","saudi arabia","red sea","israel","yemen","oil prices"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the strait's operational status","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-5,"reading":"Our coverage of Hormuz is 5% below its 3-week baseline, sustained. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the strait's operational status.","trackedDays":168,"verticalCount":34,"signalCount":130,"verticals":["africa","australia-economy","aviation","canada-economy","central-bank-digital-currency","chinese-overcapacity","crypto-defi","defense-procurement","defense-tech-startups","drones-autonomous","energy","fda-regulatory-decisions","india-south-asia","insurance","intelligence-surveillance","iran-regime","latin-america","macro-economics"]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":39,"pricedAt":"2026-10-29","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":25.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-29","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":13.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-27","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31-2026-20260713151243236","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.4,"pricedAt":"2026-10-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":12,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[{"question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 26, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":45,"pricedAt":"2026-10-29","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-26","deadlineBasis":"the date the question states in its own words","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"},{"question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-1-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":99.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-14","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-02","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"},{"question":"Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-between-10-and-20-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-may-31-822","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-06-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-05-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"}],"eventArc":{"name":"Strait of Hormuz","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","questionCount":33,"mentions":8040,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null,"note":"\"Strait of Hormuz\" maintained since 2026-05-24; last priced 2026-10-22."}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — assembled from the layers above at build time; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-10-29","text":"We keep the layers apart and do not collapse them. Our attention on Hormuz stands 5% below its baseline and is steady. That measures our coverage, not the subject. The reporting layer is attributed outside coverage, and the consensus ledger speaks as of 2026-10-29 (producer last ran 2026-10-29). Each claim carries its date, and a dated layer is never read as today's news. The market layer prices 5 questions still open by their own deadline, beside 3 past their deadline and held as historical capture. A price is collective belief about defined outcomes, never proof. A system that read any single layer alone could answer wrongly in either direction; the maintained record keeps every layer in view. This is our judgment over the layers above, labeled as such."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement after syndication collapse; measures reporting agreement, never reality","schema":"sb.claims.v1","computedAt":"2026-10-29T21:33:52+00:00","checkedAt":"2026-10-29T21:33:52+00:00","method":"retroactive. Semantic-dome membership: 10464 kernel claim(s) and 2399 frame(s) were source-faithful but failed typed-signature membership and are excluded — a claim enters this ledger only if its signature names a family entity (party, place, or authority) AND either its action class sits in the family's geopolitical profile or it names a family place outright. Anchor diagnostic: 1267 member claim(s)/frame(s) carry no anchor term — admitted by the relation graph (e.g. party + in-profile action). The anchor-term gate is diagnostic-only and excludes nothing.","pending":false,"pendingNote":null,"suppression":null,"corpus":"4728 articles archived by our sweeps between 2026-08-25 and 2026-10-29 — secondary press; this news ledger does not read primary feeds, which the record reads separately in its primary-source layer (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes, NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) with their own dates","limits":["Consensus measures reporting agreement, not reality — a uniformly repeated error passes any count.","Chains are collapsed by syndication tracing; residual shared-upstream risk remains.","Retroactive: computed 2026-10-29 over the archive, not tracked live.","Receipt gate: 78 extracted claim(s) excluded — no receipt whose own text supports the claim (the extractor's row binding is verified mechanically, never trusted).","Relative-anchor supersession: 2 claim(s) that described themselves as the most recent/last-known fact were retired because a claim from the SAME reporting thread, naming the same participants and the same measured quantity, describes a later instance of that subject — see 'retired'. 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Every count, disagreement and replacement here is decided on the sources' own words; the extractor's sentence is kept as a labelled paraphrase and decides nothing.","Domain-competence gate: 2699 kernel claim(s) and 388 frame(s) excluded — every supporting chain came from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains (aerospace_defense, auto, energy, europe_politics, india_south_asia, iran_regime, …). An outlet counts as competent when its measured home beat intersects the domains the subject's own corpus lives in; outlets with too few observations are never branded and always count.","Semantic-dome membership: 10464 kernel claim(s) and 2399 frame(s) were source-faithful but failed typed-signature membership and are excluded — a claim enters this ledger only if its signature names a family entity (party, place, or authority) AND either its action class sits in the family's geopolitical profile or it names a family place outright.","An item is published only when it is RECEIPTED: the outlet's own source link AND the source's exact words (verbatim: a literal span of the stored document, offsets into it, content-addressed by docId). The claim text is the extracted proposition and is never a quote. 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Two reports disagree here only when they give different values for the same actor, counterparty, quantity and incident: the same named date, or the same report day when no date is named.","Event grouping (event@2): 3369 claim(s) are source sentences; 314 were grouped into 134 multi-sentence event(s) and 1977 matched no other claim, giving 2111 event(s). 1078 claim(s) could not be matched (untyped action class, no participant read, or no report day), so their count stays per sentence: could not match is not single source. The rule is mechanical and conservative (same typed action, shared participants and wording, no different named person or market, first seen within 1 day, no conflicting date, time, vessel, means (mine, missile, drone, boarding, gunfire) or value, every member matched to one anchor), so it under-groups: it measures reporting agreement about one incident, not verification."],"kernelClaims":[{"claim":"Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume talks on its nuclear programme in seven days if the United States lifts its naval blockade, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observes a ceasefire that would include Lebanon.","claimVerbatim":{"text":"Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume talks on its nuclear programme in seven days if the United States lifts its naval blockade, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observes a ceasefire that would include 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Unfold with get_topic_record {subject: \"hormuz\", claims: \"retired\"} or GET /api/record/hormuz?claims=retired for full rows from the first, then follow each page's nextCursor until it is null.","unfold":{"mcp":{"tool":"get_topic_record","arguments":{"subject":"hormuz","claims":"retired"}},"rest":"/api/record/hormuz?claims=retired"}}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"doorEnvelopeReserveBytes":131072,"exhibitBudgetBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page of at most kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5, each at most 32 KiB; the rows shown are then measured so the exhibit stays within its 128 KiB share, and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. The other 128 KiB is reserved for the door's own fields (the maintained record, scope, pointers), which the fold does not measure (pass: door-envelope); each fold states its measured fit under layers.consensus.fold.fit. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."},"fit":{"exhibit":{"state":"clear","bytes":129825,"budgetBytes":131072},"envelope":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"door-envelope","reserveBytes":131072,"statement":"The door writes the maintained record, scope and pointers beside the exhibit after the fold, from data the fold is not handed, so the fold cannot measure them; they are held to this reserve."},"response":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"door-envelope","budgetBytes":262144},"shown":{"kernel":9,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"clear: the folded exhibit measures 129825 bytes against its 131072-byte share of the 262144-byte budget; the door's own fields are not measured here (pass: door-envelope) and are held to the 131072-byte reserve. Rows beyond the first page of each list are folded, never cut: follow nextCursor or unfold."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"The recorded history","basis":"our own ledger — coverage-state transitions written the moment we observe them, with how long the prior state held","started":"2026-07-19T04:02:08.330742+00:00","note":"The ledger records what it measured — a coverage-state transition, our attention metric, not a claim about the strait. It began recording 2026-07-19; states before that date were tracked but not yet ledgered, and we say so rather than backfilling: we do not backfill history we did not record. The record is never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-15T16:01:48.772967+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-27T16:00:49.546769+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00"}]}},"honestLimits":["The first-party maritime and government issuers behind this record are identified and verified — UKMTO/JMIC on a 1–3 day cadence, NAVAREA IX daily. An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a content change on the tripwire pair (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes / NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing. Each row says which date it speaks for, and nothing updates silently.","The coverage regime measures our declared source universe (144 actively-scraped verticals — definitions on the API page), not the whole internet, and it is our attention — not the strait's status.","Cadence, stated plainly: the record refreshes on a daily sweep with intraday market updates. It is maintained, not instantaneous."],"disclaimer":"Informational only, never financial, legal, or investment advice.","sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.","whyTracked":"We hold 901 documents from 186 outlets over 43 active days. It runs through 18 coverage domains we watch, including Africa, Australia Economy, Aviation. 33 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-09-14","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Sep 14, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hormuz.","186 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"full","tierBasis":{"passed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","a claim carried from three or more separate origins","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":[],"cannotMeasure":[],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-10-23","end":"2026-10-29"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1838,"corroborated":3,"published":60,"questionExcluded":26,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":0,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":414,"originsPublished":414,"recordRows":10,"singleSource":3,"reportedByTwo":4,"contested":0,"cannotCheck":0},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":3,"reported-by-2":4,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"10 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026: 3 carried from three or more separate origins, 4 reported by two, 3 from a single source. The count is of separate origins, not of truth: outlets relaying one named upstream count once, and many outlets echoing one official statement is still a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"2e5fe5f82fc8","clusterKey":"2e5fe5f82fc8","claim":"Middle East conflict: Iran says discussing plan with mediators to end war, reopen Hormuz; UAE’s Gargash urges restraint","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/qatari-mediators-present-iran-new-deal-end-war-official-says","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":3,"publisherCount":5,"originCount":5,"originsUnknownUpstream":2,"knownOriginCount":3,"originState":"measured","origins":["Reuters","gulfnews.com","Middle East Eye","The National","sabcnews.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-28","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"corroborated","originsSummary":"carried by 5 publishers from 5 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"2e1a4ec2a833","clusterKey":"2e1a4ec2a833","claim":"Iran Offers to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, but U.S. Naval Blockade Stalls Shipping Deal","claimUrl":"https://breakbulk.news/iran-offers-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-but-u-s-naval-blockade-stalls-shipping-deal/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":3,"originCount":3,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["breakbulk.news","houseofsaud.com","https://houseofsaud.com/"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-26","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"9a148a078893","clusterKey":"9a148a078893","claim":"Iran Says 7 Oil Tankers Hit In One Night In Strait Of Hormuz As Fears Of Return To War Grow","claimUrl":"https://www.marineinsight.com/iran-says-7-oil-tankers-hit-in-one-night-in-strait-of-hormuz-as-fears-of-return-to-war-grow/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=iran-says-7-oil-tankers-hit-in-one-night-in-strait-of-hormuz-as-fears-of-return-to-war-grow","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":3,"publisherCount":3,"originCount":3,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":3,"originState":"measured","origins":["houseofsaud.com","marineinsight.com","middleeasteye.net"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-23","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"corroborated","originsSummary":"carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"bb4e63d277a9","clusterKey":"bb4e63d277a9","claim":"US military says it helped Gulf states export 1.5 billion barrels of oil","claimUrl":"https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/us-says-helped-gulf-nations-export-15-bn-barrels-oil-through-hormuz","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":3,"publisherCount":3,"originCount":3,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":3,"originState":"measured","origins":["aljazeera.com","middleeasteye.net","oilprice.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-25","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"corroborated","originsSummary":"carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"087a52b31261","clusterKey":"087a52b31261","claim":"Middle East war: Netanyahu says he could work with Trump to eliminate Iran threat after Israel election; Iran war cost hits $47.1bn, Hormuz tensions rise","claimUrl":"https://www.france24.com/en/video/20261028-israel-election-what-impact-on-iran-as-the-war-in-the-middle-east-continues","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["france24.com","gulfnews.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-28","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"ae1c4f7e010c","clusterKey":"ae1c4f7e010c","claim":"Emir of Qatar, Iran’s leader discuss developments around Hormuz in Moscow","claimUrl":"https://tass.com/world/2208687","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["TASS","dailysabah.com"],"wires":["TASS"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-27","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (TASS)","marketLine":null},{"id":"c52946e77667","clusterKey":"c52946e77667","claim":"US Tells Ships to Avoid Unnecessary Transits Through Hormuz","claimUrl":"https://gcaptain.com/us-tells-ships-to-avoid-unnecessary-transits-through-hormuz/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["Bloomberg","insurancejournal.com"],"wires":["Bloomberg"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-28","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (Bloomberg)","marketLine":null},{"id":"12ac14d7406a","clusterKey":"12ac14d7406a","claim":"Iran Adds $24 Billion Reserves Demand Before Hormuz 7-Day Clock Starts","claimUrl":"https://houseofsaud.com/iran-hormuz-24-billion-precondition-oct28/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=iran-hormuz-24-billion-precondition-oct28","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["houseofsaud.com","https://houseofsaud.com/"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-28","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"1945c5853716","clusterKey":"1945c5853716","claim":"IRGC Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed as Tanker Transits Drop to 4","claimUrl":"https://houseofsaud.com/iran-declares-hormuz-closed-oct26/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=iran-declares-hormuz-closed-oct26","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["houseofsaud.com","https://houseofsaud.com/"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-26","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"e1c4b75a93e6","clusterKey":"e1c4b75a93e6","claim":"October records highest number of ship attacks in Strait of Hormuz","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxOT0p6ZElVazFhVWJxRy15cXJ6X2VJZlBZbkp6dTFNUGNzb1pCbjYyenA2UE5ERXBYMnMya2tYNkNfcGN3U3FGZ3V2MzdaN0RWUng5VFJHVl9jVk9LLVJGOVFVRFNKR21sc0pULWQ0Vm9uQk9tODlWTGs0U3BSeFd2MC15X2RIakQ2Mkw0eFhMa1Y2UUVWYVBsZkhrZHowVnlaWUpKZA?oc=5","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["Reuters","The Times of India"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-23","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — first-party operational issuers for the strait itself, verified by direct fetch","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-29","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":3,"sourcesFailing":0,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-10-29","failingSince":null},"discipline":"Honest label: rows carry their verification date, not a live refresh, and they do not silently update. A stamp moves only on a confirmed verification, and each row says which date it speaks for. The live automation status of this layer is stated on the layer itself (the automation field), derived from the fetch-health records below, never asserted ahead of them.","sourceOfRecord":"qa/c3_jobs/hormuz-operational-sources/RESULTS.md (#387)","tripwirePair":{"sources":["ukmto-jmic","navarea-ix"],"note":"UKMTO/JMIC advisory notes plus NAVAREA IX navigational warnings are the layer-0 tripwire pair: both first-party, both refreshed within 1-3 days of verification, both carrying incident-level Strait state."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a content change on the tripwire pair (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes / NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing.","lastAttempt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:26"},"sources":[{"id":"ukmto-jmic","name":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes","issuer":"UK Maritime Trade Operations (Royal Navy) / coalition Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)","tier":"primary","cadence":"~every 2–3 days","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-29","observed":"Update 106 (18 october)","observedAsOf":"2026-10-18","links":[{"label":"newest advisory (PDF)","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-19T09:47:36+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"6daa5c2737e34f4ebbf24239a9172826","lastModified":"Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:46:43 GMT","signature":"sha256:74e01bb311e7fc7481aa1a9ef4f04b6fff2f33ebc175c53ea5b3362a22562a1f","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"linkNote":"Not an index page. The issuer's advisory shelf assembles its list in the reader's browser and serves 'No products to display' to a fetcher (the crawl's own 2026-09-04 log reached the shelf and saw only footer PDFs), while each advisory is served directly under /-/media/ukmto/products/ as update-<n>-jmic-advisory-note-<dd>-<month>.pdf. This link is the newest advisory on record and it is a CURSOR, not a pin: the daily sequence probe (discovery.sequence, producer state in probeLog) walks the number forward every run and moves the link to whatever the issuer has published. Authored 2026-09-05 from search-indexed evidence, not from a fetch by the authoring session (the session VM has no egress); the daily run is the referee. History, never scrubbed: 2026-09-03 repointed the row to two shelf pages the crawl had fetched with 200, and both answered 404 on every fetch after; before that, update-073's own PDF (19 July), which re-fetching daily proved still existed and could never discover update 074.","discovery":{"root":"https://www.ukmto.org/","productPattern":"(?:update|advisor)[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*\\.pdf","note":"UKMTO publishes each JMIC advisory as a numbered PDF, so the index we want is whichever page links the most of them. Discovery runs only when the recorded links fail. Widened 2026-08-28 per the scout's productPattern-change verdict (#506/#536): the 2026-08-28 hunt saw 7 issuer PDFs, none matching the old update-<n>- shape, so the pattern now also accepts advisory-style names while still refusing the observed flyer/chart/BMP files. 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If tomorrow's probeLog shows the sample URLs 404ing, the convention or host moved (the footer PDFs live on sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/...), so change this template, not the crawl."}},"discoveryLog":{"found":false,"reachable":true,"pagesVisited":36,"visited":["https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/warnings","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products","https://www.ukmto.org/indian-ocean","https://www.ukmto.org/","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/weekly-reports","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/mievom-notes","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/industry","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/imo","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/initial-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/daily-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/final-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/incident-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/after-action-report","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/infonotes","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/weekly-dashboard","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-monthly-statistics","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/favicon.ico","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/94a11e200e1cebc1.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/b44f3e0dc3fff5a8.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/82fff4ee3068a208.css","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/footer-ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/about-us","https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents","https://www.ukmto.org/best-management-practices","https://www.ukmto.org/contact-us","https://www.ukmto.org/terms-and-conditions","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-main.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-border.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-text.svg","http://www.ukmto.org"],"pageBudget":40,"maxDepth":3,"candidatesProbed":9,"spilloverPages":15,"documentLinksSeen":7,"scriptedPages":27,"documentLinkSample":["https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/cmf/irta_mar-24.pdf?rev=f68a15866ace44c7ab3859b0b54ceb22","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/charts/q6099_low-res_ed11_2025.pdf?rev=8cbe027613764370a3fec7976a7abe19&amp;hash=C121A5BEFDE188DE15FD9AF3B54ACDA8","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/bmp/bmp-ms_hi-res_s.pdf?rev=2c338d856b0b4c169364b96766b12b27&amp;hash=8A19D49513D46613C44C7B51FC16F8D1","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-flyer-aug-2025.pdf?rev=e496e07a3da342b8bb89f268f21ad9a9","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-bridge-emergency-reference-cards---middle-east---digital---rev20dec2024.pdf?rev=c496f5a149b9480ab4cc13d8a1da4c06"],"note":"No page links or lists artifacts matching the product pattern, but the crawl DID see 7 document link(s) that do not match it (documentLinkSample). 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The row's own reader is still the referee."},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastReadRef":"416/26","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":1,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"corroboration","name":"Corroboration & context","issuer":"US MARAD MSCI · NGA MSI · EIA · Lloyd’s JWC","tier":"primary","cadence":"periodic / event-driven","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-29","observed":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024 (081538Z MAY 2024) — PERSIAN GULF. QATAR. DNC 10. SURVEY OPERATIONS 08 MAY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE BY M/V HORIZON GEOBAY IN AREA BOUND BY 26-09.23N 051-48.00E, 26-06.54N 052-02.87E, 25-31.26N 051-56.93E, 25-33.85N 051-41.16E. 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Corroboration, not a primary tripwire.","observedRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","observedDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","observedReadAt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00","lastReadRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":904,"observedContentAgeNote":"Read successfully on 2026-10-29, but the advisory it names is dated 081538Z MAY 2024, 904 days old. The read is current; the operational picture it describes is not necessarily. Stated so age cannot be mistaken for freshness.","readState":"read","readStateNote":null}],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"strait-of-hormuz","rowsFrom":"maintained-record","counts":{"eventReceipts":5,"entityCaptures":3,"served":8,"live":5,"expired":3,"undated":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-10-29","live":{"count":5,"priceAsOf":"2026-10-29","questions":["US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?"]},"historical":{"count":3,"questions":["Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 26, 2026?","Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?"]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-29","reading":"5 of 8 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-29; newest live price seen 2026-10-29); 3 have passed their deadline and are kept as historical capture, never current expectation. Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"8 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Oct 29, 2026: 5 still open by their own deadline, 3 past it and kept as recorded. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":39,"pricedAt":"2026-10-29","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 26, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":45,"pricedAt":"2026-10-29","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-26","deadlineBasis":"the date the question states in its own words","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":25.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-29","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":13.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-27","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31-2026-20260713151243236","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.4,"pricedAt":"2026-10-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-1-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":99.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-14","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-02","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":12,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-between-10-and-20-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-may-31-822","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-06-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-05-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Hormuz has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":901,"outlets":186,"activeDays":43,"firstSeen":"2026-09-14","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-29","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-10-29","activeDays":43,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":4691,"outlets":303,"activeDays":83,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-28","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"],"asserts":null,"assertsUnit":null,"assertionCoverage":0.096,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":3780,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":17,"ceasefire-deal":4,"sanction-trade":4}},{"name":"oil","together":3237,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"middle east","together":2003,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":1834,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"red sea","together":1107,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"israel","together":1551,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"yemen","together":1496,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":1098,"sharedDomains":["energy"]}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","middle east","saudi arabia","red sea","israel","yemen","oil prices"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the strait's operational status","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-5,"reading":"Our coverage of Hormuz is 5% below its 3-week baseline, sustained. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the strait's operational status.","trackedDays":168,"verticalCount":34,"signalCount":130,"verticals":["africa","australia-economy","aviation","canada-economy","central-bank-digital-currency","chinese-overcapacity","crypto-defi","defense-procurement","defense-tech-startups","drones-autonomous","energy","fda-regulatory-decisions","india-south-asia","insurance","intelligence-surveillance","iran-regime","latin-america","macro-economics"],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-29","firstParty":{"state":"measured","text":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes reports Update 106, dated 18 october; NAVAREA IX navigational warnings reports 416/26, dated 28 Oct 2026. Read from the issuer Oct 29, 2026."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":3,"rowCount":10,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":3,"reported-by-2":4,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-23","end":"2026-10-29"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":"event","text":"The press archive's ladder is a different count: 2111 events over every date in the archive, not this window, 16 of them at three or more separate origins. It counts events, not the claims above."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): 3 of 10 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 10 claims about Hormuz on the record in the current window (Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026), 3 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 4 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Middle East conflict: Iran says discussing plan with mediators to end war, reopen Hormuz; UAE’s Gargash urges restraint” (corroborated; carried by 5 publishers from 5 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 28, 2026); “Iran Says 7 Oil Tankers Hit In One Night In Strait Of Hormuz As Fears Of Return To War Grow” (corroborated; carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins, earliest Oct 23, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},"singleSource":{"state":"measured","count":2028,"unit":"event","rule":"event@2","sentenceCount":3365,"text":"2028 of the 2111 events in this record's press archive (its 3369 who/what/when/where sentences, grouped by the incident they report) rest on a single reporting chain: reported once, and not repeated by anyone who did not copy it. Another 1078 sentences the event rule could not place, so each counts on its own sources and is never folded into single source. They are held, and they are not corroboration."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","scope":"0 comparable pairs among 10 headline clusters on this record (45 pairs judged: 40 without a shared typed actor and action class, 5 sharing them over different propositions)","rule":{"id":"claim-contradiction@1","digest":"9f52fa173ad5cc51","axes":["action-class","actor"],"overlap":0.5,"polarity":"denial markers only","negationMarkers":38},"input":{"kind":"headline-clusters","judged":10,"clearRows":10,"capped":0,"pairsJudged":45,"notComparable":{"typedAxes":40,"sameProposition":5}},"readingFrom":"record.reading","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged","comparablePairs":0,"rows":[],"asOf":"2026-10-29","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 10 headline clusters on this record (45 pairs judged: 40 without a shared typed actor and action class, 5 sharing them over different propositions). That is unknown, not none."},"disputed":{"state":"measured","rule":"same-incident","count":0,"unit":"claim","tally":{"nominated":10,"admitted":0,"incident":4,"different":6,"unresolved":0},"text":"No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 27, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?” at 39% (polymarket, Oct 29, 2026), while our own record holds 3 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 10 claims in all: 4 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"measured","rows":[{"name":"Corroboration & context","ageDays":904,"documentDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","ref":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024"}],"text":"Earlier documents on file: Corroboration & context, latest dated May 2024 (NAVAREA P 1540/2024). The read above does not rest on them."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"first-party document: Corroboration & context","why":"its latest document is 904 days old, past the 30-day window; held as provenance"},{"input":"8 further claim rows (of every standing)","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"3 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"first-party document","text":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes: Update 106","asOf":"2026-10-18","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00"},{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NAVAREA IX navigational warnings: 416/26","asOf":"2026-10-28","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-29T09:35:53+00:00"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Middle East conflict: Iran says discussing plan with mediators to end war, reopen Hormuz; UAE’s Gargash urges restraint","asOf":"2026-10-28"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Iran Offers to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, but U.S. Naval Blockade Stalls Shipping Deal","asOf":"2026-10-26"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Iran Says 7 Oil Tankers Hit In One Night In Strait Of Hormuz As Fears Of Return To War Grow","asOf":"2026-10-23"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?: 39% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-10-29"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"measured","text":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes reports Update 106, dated 18 october; NAVAREA IX navigational warnings reports 416/26, dated 28 Oct 2026. Read from the issuer Oct 29, 2026."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"How well the claims are supported","state":"measured","count":3,"rowCount":10,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":3,"reported-by-2":4,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-23","end":"2026-10-29"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":"event","text":"The press archive's ladder is a different count: 2111 events over every date in the archive, not this window, 16 of them at three or more separate origins. It counts events, not the claims above."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): 3 of 10 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 10 claims about Hormuz on the record in the current window (Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026), 3 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 4 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Middle East conflict: Iran says discussing plan with mediators to end war, reopen Hormuz; UAE’s Gargash urges restraint” (corroborated; carried by 5 publishers from 5 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 28, 2026); “Iran Says 7 Oil Tankers Hit In One Night In Strait Of Hormuz As Fears Of Return To War Grow” (corroborated; carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins, earliest Oct 23, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"measured","count":2028,"unit":"event","rule":"event@2","sentenceCount":3365,"text":"2028 of the 2111 events in this record's press archive (its 3369 who/what/when/where sentences, grouped by the incident they report) rest on a single reporting chain: reported once, and not repeated by anyone who did not copy it. Another 1078 sentences the event rule could not place, so each counts on its own sources and is never folded into single source. They are held, and they are not corroboration."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 10 headline clusters on this record (45 pairs judged: 40 without a shared typed actor and action class, 5 sharing them over different propositions). That is unknown, not none."},{"key":"disputed","label":"Where reports give different numbers","state":"measured","pass":null,"text":"No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 27, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?” at 39% (polymarket, Oct 29, 2026), while our own record holds 3 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 10 claims in all: 4 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"measured","rows":[{"name":"Corroboration & context","ageDays":904,"documentDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","ref":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024"}],"text":"Earlier documents on file: Corroboration & context, latest dated May 2024 (NAVAREA P 1540/2024). The read above does not rest on them."}],"states":{"firstParty":"measured","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"measured","contradicted":"cannot-measure","disputed":"measured","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"measured"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":"2026-07-19T04:02:08.330742+00:00","note":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 27, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-15T16:01:48.772967+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-27T16:00:49.546769+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-20T15:58:08.126485+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/hormuz","mcp":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_topic_record\",\"arguments\":{\"subject\":\"hormuz\"}}}'","resource":"sb://exhibit/hormuz","page":"https://sigb.ai/exhibit/hormuz/","note":"This page, GET /api/record/hormuz and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading. One honest distinction: get_entity(\"hormuz\") returns the broader live entity dossier — a different, complementary object, not this record."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Hormuz has been scored"},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the comparability pass. We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 10 headline clusters on this record (45 pairs judged: 40 without a shared typed actor and action class, 5 sharing them over different propositions). That is"}],"standing":["The first-party maritime and government issuers behind this record are identified and verified — UKMTO/JMIC on a 1–3 day cadence, NAVAREA IX daily. An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a content change on the tripwire pair (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes / NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing. Each row says which date it speaks for, and nothing updates silently.","The coverage regime measures our declared source universe (144 actively-scraped verticals — definitions on the API page), not the whole internet, and it is our attention — not the strait's status.","Cadence, stated plainly: the record refreshes on a daily sweep with intraday market updates. It is maintained, not instantaneous."],"note":"2 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-29","generatedAt":"2026-10-29T21:52:40.283342+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-88d336bf","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":{"name":"hormuz primary sources","status":"FRESH","ageHours":6,"limitHours":72,"owner":"hormuz-primary-sources.yml"},"slaNote":"We check the first-party sources at least every 72 hours; the last check found them current."},"stateScope":{"schema":"sb.state-scope.v1","state":"measured","statement":"Each row names a state this exhibit view and the embedded maintained record both describe, with the value and the as-of each side gives. Where they differ, `scope` says why. Values are never reconciled, so a difference is shown as it is.","exhibitAsOf":"2026-10-29","recordAsOf":"2026-10-29","recordGeneratedAt":"2026-10-29T21:58:01.832174+00:00","recordVersion":"cf0999c66dbbc0f4","fields":[{"field":"currency.state","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"currency.state","value":"not-reliably-current","word":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-10-29"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.state","value":"not-reliably-current","word":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-10-29"},"scope":null},{"field":"primarySources.availability","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.primarySources.status","value":"available","word":"observed","asOf":"2026-10-29"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.layers.primarySources.state","value":"available","word":"current","asOf":"2026-10-29"},"scope":null},{"field":"consensus.availability","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.consensus","value":"computed","word":"computed","asOf":"2026-10-29T21:33:52+00:00"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.layers.consensusLedger","value":"computed","word":"current","asOf":"2026-10-29T18:50:42+00:00"},"scope":{"kind":"different-snapshot","why":"Same state on both sides. The exhibit's reading speaks for 2026-10-29T21:33:52+00:00 and the record's for 2026-10-29T18:50:42+00:00."}},{"field":"refereeGrades.state","agree":false,"exhibit":{"path":"refereeGrades.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.sectionStates.refereeGrades.state","value":"published-but-ungraded","word":"published-but-ungraded","asOf":null},"scope":{"kind":"different-question","exhibit":"per-subject grades of the market prices we cite: the grading runs across every subject at once, so no grade for one subject exists to read","record":"the referee ledger's per-subject count of tracked probabilities and how many have been graded (the record's refereeGradesMeta.counts)","why":"The two answer different questions, and both say no grade exists for this subject. The record counts tracked rows and finds none graded; the exhibit says no per-subject grade can be read. Neither is restated as the other."}},{"field":"ourRead.contradicted.reading","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"ourRead.contradicted.reading","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":"2026-10-29"},"record":{"path":"record.ourRead.contradicted.reading","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":"2026-10-29"},"scope":null}],"unlabelled":0,"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_state_scope_parity.mjs fails the build when a row differs with no scope."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"hormuz","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"full","tierBasis":{"computed":"full","served":"full","passed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":[],"cannotMeasure":["no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"full","subject":{"label":"Hormuz","aliases":["close the strait","hormuz","hormuz traffic","strait of hormuz","strait-of-hormuz"],"eventKey":"strait-of-hormuz","entityKeys":["hormuz","strait-of-hormuz"],"mergedSlugs":["strait-of-hormuz"],"eventSlugs":["hormuz","strait-of-hormuz"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Hormuz is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of. The record joins 901 document(s) from 186 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-08-29","coverageSinceBasis":"registered in the publication registry","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-09-14","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. We serve current state, not forecasts.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"full","tierBasis":{"computed":"full","served":"full","passed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":[],"cannotMeasure":["no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"2e5fe5f82fc8","claim":"Middle East conflict: Iran says discussing plan with mediators to end war, reopen Hormuz; UAE’s Gargash urges restraint","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/qatari-mediators-present-iran-new-deal-end-war-official-says","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 separate origins"},"independentOrigins":3,"publisherCount":5,"originCount":5,"originsUnknownUpstream":2,"originState":"measured","knownOriginCount":3,"independentCount":3,"originBasis":"carried by 5 publisher(s) from 5 separate origin(s); 2 of those origin(s) had no readable text, so whether they relay an upstream is UNKNOWN — shown, never counted: the tier stands on the 3 origin(s) whose upstream is known; corroborated needs at least 3 separate origins","independenceBasis":"carried by 5 publisher(s) from 5 separate origin(s); 2 of those origin(s) had no readable text, so whether they relay an upstream is UNKNOWN — shown, never counted: the tier stands on the 3 origin(s) whose upstream is known; corroborated needs at least 3 separate origins","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"gulfnews.com","wire":false},{"origin":"Middle East Eye","wire":false},{"origin":"The National","wire":false},{"origin":"sabcnews.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-28","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/qatari-mediators-present-iran-new-deal-end-war-official-says","publishedAt":"2026-10-28","wire":true,"redirect":false},{"origin":"gulfnews.com","url":"https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/middle-east-war-iran-says-qatar-offered-no-new-proposal-uaes-gargash-urges-restraint-1.500726349","publishedAt":"2026-10-28","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"Middle East Eye","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxNWW5vRGtSc3NWdDAtV2JuYXZZa1hHVTlqb1VyaFUxOW1pM3VlMDRXbEJnWFhqbTNhZzFkZUZTdnJUODJSZ3RvcnBlM2lRUDNCbjU2TmN4bmF0RVRUclBzNHh1V0I4dGtia21tcW1CbWJqRjhpelpLa1V1QUtpTVpBcE9QcDVXd2RqUFRZNTV6Yw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-10-28","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"The National","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifkFVX3lxTE1lem9tb1QwUDdzdGVId2ZLZXBTc0tsTGs1aTdHS29mRjR1di1IOThPYVFLQUp6MFdoN3VBZF9GWWZzQVp4RmpRQTFucmhOMEF6eUZpdXpCa05SQjlkVVdhbFJOVnFBMDVXaFg0WDBfZi1nQmsyYnVCdXhFQmVRdw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-10-28","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"sabcnews.com","url":"https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/qatari-mediators-present-iran-with-new-deal-to-end-the-war-official/","publishedAt":"2026-10-28","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":5,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"Middle East conflict: Iran says discussing plan with mediators to end war, reopen Hormuz; UAE’s Gargash urges restraint","src":"gulfnews","u":"https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/middle-east-war-iran-says-qatar-offered-no-new-proposal-uaes-gargash-urges-restraint-1.500726349","pd":"2026-10-28"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["hormuz"],"state":"corroborated","subjectRelevance":{"state":"clear","basis":"receipt-attribution:title","reason":"the subject is named in the claim's title"},"claimBasis":"titleRepr","claimMemberUrl":null,"titleReprRelevance":null,"cohesion":{"rule":"cohesion@1","size":6,"spanDays":0,"linkDensity":0.5333,"densityBar":0.4286,"state":"clear","reason":"0.533 of member pairs match directly (bar 0.429)"}},{"clusterKey":"2e1a4ec2a833","claim":"Iran Offers to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, but U.S. Naval Blockade Stalls Shipping Deal","claimUrl":"https://breakbulk.news/iran-offers-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-but-u-s-naval-blockade-stalls-shipping-deal/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. 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